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How To Back Test Your Trading System? Know These Shocking Limitations!

February 28th, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam | No Comments | Filed in Wealth Building

Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.

For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.

There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!

In other words, no two trades work out in exact the same way twice. SO you have to be careful when looking at the back testing results and take it with a pinch of salt. However, there are still some advantages of back testing a trading system.

Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies. Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions.

On the other hand, you might not find much seasonal trends in the currencies and bond market. Some though talk of the January Effect but this effect is not that pronounced now a days. In case of stocks, stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of each new month as institutional investors tend to put new money to work during that time frame.

Backtesting can help you figure out how long a trend might last in a particular market. For example, US Dollar Index trendlines might last for months to years. In other markets too backtesting can help you figure out important trends that lasts for last times.

There is no substitute for live trading results! To tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Download these Forex Scalping Cheatsheets FREE! Read this shocking FREE 40 page PDF FRWC Brutal Truth Report that exposes everything about trading robots!

categories: forex,currency trading,stocks,trading,stock market,mutual funds,money,day trading,wealth building,retirement,credit,debt,options,futures,home business,real estate

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Financial Literacy - Did You Learn This At School

September 19th, 2009 by Damian Papworth | No Comments | Filed in Wealth Building

One of my most enduring memories from high school is that in almost every class I attended, it didn’t matter what the subject was, there was always some smarty pants who would say to the teacher “I just don’t see how this will help me later in life”. Its funny how the teachers never really gave them a satisfactory answer.

What a great exercise it would be, to find out what exactly turned out to be useful from each class, and in which cases those troublemakers were right. In other words, what have I actually used to get ahead in life and which class did it come from? However, that exploration will be left for another time. There is one subject which would obviously be useful for anyone in any career or vocation, one that should be taught in every school, but for some reason never is. The subject is Financial Literacy, something we could all put to excellent use.

Financial Literacy class would prepare students with the basics, giving students the opportunity to examine their possibilities and have some basis for making decisions regarding their finances. You want to give students a chance, as many make the most foolish mistakes and ended up mired in debt they are unable to service. Financial Literacy would try to counteract that; here is the way the class would progress.

Week 1. Is that a scam? How to recognize scams and not get involved in them. All they are, are people stealing your money.

Week 2. Will you be able to pay back the money you borrow? The second part of the class would help students figure out if borrowing money for business or personal use is a smart idea. Credit card debt, mortgages, and other loans would be discussed. The idea would be to give students a concept of cash flow and how to service a debt, while exploring tax benefits of debt.

Week 3. Asset evaluation. Students will have a chance to evaluate assets. What is an appreciating asset? How is that different from a depreciating one? Earning assets will be covered along with consumables. Defining one’s net worth is a series of decisions and students will see which choices will give them hope for the future.

Week 4. How should you invest? The different types of risk involved with any investment would be explored. With so many possibilities for going right and wrong with an investment, students would get an idea about how to spot a dangerous move as opposed to a promising opportunity. Making investments that work can lead to success, and vice versa.

Week 5. How should you leverage investments? Working with investment portfolios, students would be instructed on the process of leveraging. Tax concerns would be part of the lesson, as there are significant tax breaks available when taking out a loan for an investment.

Final phase. At the end of the course, the student would try and make it all come together. There would be a layout of common mistakes and how to avoid making them. The ways to use the law in your favor and how to protect yourself would be covered. Finally, there would be suggestions on how to work with whatever types of finances you have to create the maximum amount of wealth.

Damian Papworth understands that you do not need mutual fund investments. With some easy strategies, you are capable of being your own investment manager.

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A Case For A Financial Literacy Class

September 18th, 2009 by Damian Papworth | No Comments | Filed in Wealth Building

Thinking back over my days in high school, I remember the presence of some character in every class who was constantly asking the teacher, “How will this be useful for me in my life out of school?”. No matter the class, no matter the situation, the question would arise, to the disbelief and annoyance of the teacher, who never really gave an answer.

What a great exercise it would be, to find out what exactly turned out to be useful from each class, and in which cases those troublemakers were right. In other words, what have I actually used to get ahead in life and which class did it come from? However, that exploration will be left for another time. There is one subject which would obviously be useful for anyone in any career or vocation, one that should be taught in every school, but for some reason never is. The subject is Financial Literacy, something we could all put to excellent use.

Financial Literacy as a subject in school would be a course examining the impact of certain decisions on your finances, encompassing major and minor decisions. Basically, the goal would be to arm students with enough knowledge of the financial world that they wouldn’t go out and make the foolish mistakes that drive so many people to financial ruin every year. The curriculum would go in the following direction.

Week 1. Avoiding scams. The teacher would deliver a tutorial on avoiding scams that prey on the young and naive.

Week 2. Will you be able to pay back the money you borrow? The second part of the class would help students figure out if borrowing money for business or personal use is a smart idea. Credit card debt, mortgages, and other loans would be discussed. The idea would be to give students a concept of cash flow and how to service a debt, while exploring tax benefits of debt.

Week 3. What type of assets do you own? In this lesson, different assets would be explained. For example, an appreciating asset would be compared to a depreciating asset. Similarly a consumable would be compared to an earning asset. These assets would be compared over time, so you can see the impact purchasing different items has to your net wealth over time.

Week 4. How should you invest? The different types of risk involved with any investment would be explored. With so many possibilities for going right and wrong with an investment, students would get an idea about how to spot a dangerous move as opposed to a promising opportunity. Making investments that work can lead to success, and vice versa.

Week 5. How should you leverage investments? Working with investment portfolios, students would be instructed on the process of leveraging. Tax concerns would be part of the lesson, as there are significant tax breaks available when taking out a loan for an investment.

Final phase. At the end of the course, the student would try and make it all come together. There would be a layout of common mistakes and how to avoid making them. The ways to use the law in your favor and how to protect yourself would be covered. Finally, there would be suggestions on how to work with whatever types of finances you have to create the maximum amount of wealth.

Damian Papworth acknowledges that you don’t require mutual fund investments. With some easy strategies, you can be your own investment manager.

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